                ---  SOLAR TERRESTRIAL FORECAST AND REVIEW  ---
                       February 17 to February 26, 1991
 
                Report Based In-Part from Data Obtained from the
                       Space Environment Services Center
                               Boulder Colorado
 
                                   --------
 
 
SOLAR TERRESTRIAL REVIEW FOR 10 FEBRUARY TO 16 FEBRUARY.
 
     Solar activity over the past week has been mostly low.  A low-level
M-class flare erupted early in the week (11 Feb) from Region 6487.  This
region exhibited a brief beta-gamma magnetic configuration early in the
week.  As the week progressed, Region 6487 began to decay.  It is now
a relatively simple beta group of significantly reduced area and will
pass beyond the east limb on 18 February.  There has been no other
significant sunspot activity this week.
 
     Probably the most noteworthy solar event to occur this week was the
disappearance of a very long filament in the southwest solar hemisphere
between approximately 16:00 UT and 19:00 UT on 14 February.  The filament
was about 50 degrees in length and produced some very minor radio emissions.
The event was believed responsible for a coronal mass ejection, although
this has not been reliably confirmed.
 
     M-class flare activity has increased as of late.  Two optically
uncorrelated M-class events have been observed since 16 February.  The
signatures of these events are characteristic of those events which occur
around the eastern limb.  Indeed, this is the most likely area for flare
activity to be observed, considering the fact that several previously
very active regions are due to return around 18 February.  The latest
event (an optically uncorrelated class M1.5 event with an observed Type II
sweep) occurred at 06:22 UT on 17 February.
 
     Geomagnetic activity increased to active levels over most latitudes
(with periodic minor storming at high latitudes) on 12 and 13 February.
A well placed coronal hole is held responsible for the increased activity.
Activity has since declined to generally quiet levels.
 
     Auroral activity increased in tandem with geomagnetic activity on
12 and 13 February.  High latitudes witnessed periods of moderate activity.
Middle and low latitudes were generally unable to witness any activity.
 
     HF radio propagation conditions have been normal to above normal over
the past week.  The only exceptions were on 12 and 13 February when increased
magnetic and auroral activity degraded radio conditions slightly over most
latitudes.  High latitudes were affected the strongest, although even at
high latitudes, no significant degradations were observed.
 
     VHF propagation conditions continued to be normal this week.  Conditions
remained stable.  No SID enhancements or other anomalies were observed due to
the quiet levels of solar activity which occurred.
 
 
SHORT TERM SOLAR TERRESTRIAL FORECAST
 
     Solar activity is on the rise again.  Indices have been climbing now
for the past several days.  The background X-ray flux has increased from
a class C1.2 level on 15 February to a class C2.3 level on 17 February.  The
10.7 cm radio solar flux has increased from 194 on 15 February to 214 on
17 February.  M-class flare activity has increased notably over the past
24 hours.  They have so far been optically uncorrelated, which suggests that
the region(s) which are spawning the events are still out of view near the
eastern limb.
 
     M-class flaring is likely to continue at an enhanced rate for the next
two weeks as the active regions begin to traverse the visible solar disk.
There is also an elevated risk for major flaring.  Major flares are likely
to be observed with the passage of the active regions across the solar disk
over the next two weeks.  However, the rate of major flaring (if indeed
major flaring does redevelope) will not be known until the regions in
question rotate into view.  At the present time, major flaring is not
expected to be as frequent as was observed during the last appearance of
these returning regions.  More will obviously be known within the next
several days.
 
     The geomagnetic field is expected to remain generally quiet until near
22 February.  At that time, geomagnetic activity is expected to increase
to mostly unsettled to active levels.  A well placed coronal hole should
increase magnetic activity at that time.  A return to more quiet levels
should be observed by 24 February (barring any significant solar activity).
 
     Auroral activity will remain dormant until 21/22 February.  It should
become mostly moderate in intensity over the higher latitudes on 22/23 February
and is expected to return to generally dormant levels by 24 February (again,
barring any significant solar events).  Northerly middle latitudes should
observe an increase in low level auroral activity near 22/23 February.  Lower
latitudes will be unable to witness any activity.  However, please note that
the risk for potential auroral storming will increase as the week progresses,
dependent upon the intensity of activity of the returning active solar regions.
 
     HF propagation conditions are expected to remain at normal to above
normal levels for the next two weeks.  The increased levels of energy being
received from the sun should maintain high MUF's throughout this week.
Openings on 6 meters could become common beginning this week, lasting possibly
into the first week of March.  The frequency of SID's and SWF's will increase
and persist for the next two weeks.  Daytime HF absorption will increase
during periods of M-class flare activity, which could become quite a frequent
phenomena.  Propagation conditions should experience some degradation on
22/23 February in response to the expected increase in geomagnetic activity on
this date.  No significant HF problems are anticipated.
 
     VHF propagation conditions should remain normal throughout most of the
coming week.  The potential for experiencing SID-enhanced propagation will
exist throughout the next two weeks as flare activity is expected to increase
in both frequency and magnitude.  SID enhancing effects are only noticable
over the sunlit hemisphere.  High latitudes will not notice the effects as
strongly as middle and low latitudes.
 
 
SUMMARY OF ALL ACTIVE REGIONS VISIBLE ON THE SOLAR DISK AS OF 18 FEBRUARY
 
Region #   Location   LO   Area   Class   LL    Spots     Magnetic Type
--------   --------  ---   ----   -----   --    -----     -------------
  6487      N13W88   009   0480    DAO    08     005      BETA
  6488      S12W52   333   0000    AXX    01     001      ALPHA
  6492      S12W93   014   0180    CAO    06     002      BETA
  6495      S05W43   324   0030    BXO    05     004      BETA
  6496      N28W07   288   0000    AXX    01     002      ALPHA
  6497      S11E16   265   0390    CSO    05     006      BETA
  6498      N24W05   286   0180    CAO    05     011      BETA
  6501      S08W68   349   0180    CAO    06     010      BETA
  6502      S13W71   352   0330    DAO    08     005      BETA
  6504      S16E51   230   1020    EKO    11     018      BETA
  6505      S13E28   253   0090    CSO    05     008      BETA
  6506      N29E48   233   0030    BXO    05     004      BETA
  6507      S04E57   224   0000    AXX    01     002      ALPHA
  6508      S12E80   201   0060    HRX    02     002      ALPHA
  6509      S20E81   200   0480    CSO    10     009      BETA
  6510      S17E23   258   0030    BXO    04     006      BETA
 
NOTES:  Area is in million square kilometers.  Angular extent (LL) and solar
longitude (LO) are in degree's.  For more information regarding the terminology
used above, request the Glossary of Solar Terrestrial Terms from:
"std_oler@hg.uleth.ca".
 
 
H-ALPHA PLAGES WITHOUT SPOTS.  LOCATIONS VALID AS OF 00:00 UT ON 18 FEBRUARY.
 
REGION           LOCATION            LO             COMMENTS (IF ANY)
------           --------            ---      -------------------------------
 6489             S11W48             329                   NONE
 6490             S07W79             360
 6491             S06W36             317
 6500             S07W28             309
 6503             S20W62             343
 
 
ACTIVE REGIONS DUE TO RETURN BETWEEN 18 FEBRUARY AND 20 FEBRUARY.
 
Region   Latitude  Longitude (Helio.)
------   --------  ---------
6472       N11        189
6469       S13        184
6482       N07        182
 
NOTES:  For definitions regarding the above, request the "Glossary of Solar
        Terrestrial Terms" from "std_oler@hg.uleth.ca".
 
 
GRAPHICAL ANALYSIS OF RECENT PLANETARY (GLOBAL) GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY
 
                  Cumulative Geomagnetic Activity History
        Peak Planetary Geomagnetic Activity during the past 96 hours
     ____________________________________________________________________
    |  EXTREMELY SEVERE |        |        |        |        | VERY HIGH! |
    | VERY SEVERE STORM |        |        |        |        | HIGH       |
    |      SEVERE STORM |        |        |        |        | MODERATE   |
    |       MAJOR STORM |        |        |        |        | LOW - MOD. |
    |       MINOR STORM |        |        |        |        | LOW        |
    |       VERY ACTIVE |        |        |        |        | NONE       |
    |            ACTIVE |     *  |        |*       |        | NONE       |
    |         UNSETTLED | * *****|   *****|* * ** *|   * ** | NONE       |
    |             QUIET |********|********|********|********| NONE       |
    |        VERY QUIET |********|********|********|********| NONE       |
    |-------------------|--------|--------|--------|--------|------------|
    | Geomagnetic Field |  Thu.  |  Fri.  |  Sat.  |  Sun.  |  Anomaly   |
    |    Conditions     |     Given in 3-hour intervals     | Intensity  |
    |____________________________________________________________________|
 
NOTES:
       The data above represents planetary geomagnetic activity.  Data from
many magnetic observatories around the world are used in constructing the
above chart.  The first graph line for each day represents geomagnetic
activity which occurred between 00 UT and 03 UT.  The second graph line
represents activity which occurred between 03 UT and 06 UT, etc.  For
information regarding the interpretation and/or use of these charts, send
a request for the document "Understanding Solar Terrestrial Reports" to:
std_oler@hg.uleth.ca.
 
 
PLANETARY 10-DAY GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY OUTLOOK (17 FEBRUARY - 26 FEBRUARY)
 
    ________________________________________________________________________
   |  EXTREMELY SEVERE |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   | VERY HIGH! |
   | VERY SEVERE STORM |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   | HIGH       |
   |      SEVERE STORM |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   | MODERATE   |
   |       MAJOR STORM |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   | LOW - MOD. |
   |       MINOR STORM |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   | LOW        |
   |       VERY ACTIVE |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   | NONE       |
   |            ACTIVE |   |   |   |   |   | * | * |   |   |   | NONE       |
   |         UNSETTLED |   | **|** | * | **|***|***|** | * | * | NONE       |
   |             QUIET |***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***| NONE       |
   |        VERY QUIET |***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***| NONE       |
   |-------------------|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|------------|
   | Geomagnetic Field |Sun|Mon|Tue|Wed|Thu|Fri|Sat|Sun|Mon|Tue|  Anomaly   |
   |    Conditions     |       Given in 8-hour intervals       | Intensity  |
   |________________________________________________________________________|
 
                            CONFIDENCE LEVEL: 65%
 
NOTES:
       Predicted geomagnetic activity is based heavily on recurrent phenomena.
Transient energetic solar events cannot be predicted reliably over periods in
excess of several days.  Hence, there may be some deviations from the
predictions due to the unpredictable transient solar component.
 
 
GRAPHICAL ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVITY OVER THE PAST 60 DAYS
 
                   Cumulative Graphical Analysis of
                           Solar Activity
    ____________________________________________________________
377|                                                            | V.HIGH
363|                                         F                  | V.HIGH
348|                                        *FF                 | V.HIGH
334|                                        *FF                 | V.HIGH
320|                                       **FF                 | V.HIGH
306|                                       **FF*                | V.HIGH
291|                                      F**FF**               | HIGH
277|                                     *F**FF**               | HIGH
263|                                    F*F**FF***              | HIGH
249|                                    F*F**FF***              | MOD.
234|                                   *F*F**FF***F             | MOD.
220|                      *          ***F*F**FF***F*            | MOD.
206|                    *****   F    ***F*F**FF***F* F        **| MOD.
192|* *    F****       ******* *F*******F*F**FF***F**FF      ***| MOD.
177|***FFF*F*******  ***********F*******F*F**FF***F**FF* *******| LOW
163|***FFF*F********************F*******F*F**FF***F**FF*********| LOW
    ------------------------------------------------------------
               Cumulative 60 day Solar Activity Record
                   Start Date:  December 19, 1990
 
NOTES:
       Left-hand column digits represent the 10.7 cm solar radio flux obtained
from Ottawa.  The right-hand column describes the relative solar activity for
that period based on the average number of major and minor flares that can be
expected for related solar flux values.  Plot lines labeled with the letter "F"
represent days where at least one major flare occurred (ie. class M5 or greater
flare).
 
 
GRAPHICAL 20-DAY SOLAR ACTIVITY PREDICTION
 
                           Solar Activity
 _________________________________________________________________
| 285 |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |
| 278 |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |**|**|**|  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |
| 271 |  |  |  |  |  |**|**|  |  |  |**|**|**|  |  |  |  |  |  |  |
| 264 |  |  |  |  |**|  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |**|  |  |  |  |  |  |
| 257 |  |  |  |**|  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |**|  |  |  |  |  |
| 250 |  |  |**|  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |**|  |  |  |  |
| 243 |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |
| 236 |  |**|  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |**|  |  |  |
| 229 |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |
| 222 |**|  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |**|  |  |
| 215 |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |**|  |
| 208 |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |**|
| 201 |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |  |
|-----|--|--|--|--|--|--|--|--|--|--|--|--|--|--|--|--|--|--|--|--|
|Solar|18|19|20|21|22|23|24|25|26|27|28|01|02|03|04|05|06|07|08|09|
|Flux |           February             |          March           |
 -----------------------------------------------------------------
 
                      CONFIDENCE LEVEL: 50%
 
 
HF RADIO SIGNAL PROPAGATION PREDICTIONS (17 FEBRUARY - 26 FEBRUARY)
 
                              High Latitude Paths
            ________________________________________________________
           | EXTREMELY GOOD |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |
           |      VERY GOOD |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |
CONFIDENCE |           GOOD |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |
  LEVEL    |           FAIR |***|***|***|* *|*  |   |   |  *|* *|* *|
 -------   |           POOR |   |   |   | * | **|***|***|** | * | * |
   60%     |      VERY POOR |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |
           | EXTREMELY POOR |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |
           |----------------|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
           |  PROPAGATION   |Sun|Mon|Tue|Wed|Thu|Fri|Sat|Sun|Mon|Tue|
           |    QUALITY     |     Given in 8-Hour UT Intervals      |
            --------------------------------------------------------
 
                             Middle Latitude Paths
            ________________________________________________________
           | EXTREMELY GOOD |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |
           |      VERY GOOD |***|***|***|***|* *|   |   |  *|* *|* *|
CONFIDENCE |           GOOD |   |   |   |   | * |***|* *|** | * | * |
  LEVEL    |           FAIR |   |   |   |   |   |   | * |   |   |   |
 -------   |           POOR |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |
   65%     |      VERY POOR |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |
           | EXTREMELY POOR |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |
           |----------------|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
           |  PROPAGATION   |Sun|Mon|Tue|Wed|Thu|Fri|Sat|Sun|Mon|Tue|
           |    QUALITY     |     Given in 8-Hour UT Intervals      |
            --------------------------------------------------------
 
                                Low Latitude Paths
            ________________________________________________________
           | EXTREMELY GOOD |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |
           |      VERY GOOD |***|***|***|***|***|*  |   |* *|* *|* *|
CONFIDENCE |           GOOD |   |   |   |   |   | **|***| * | * | * |
  LEVEL    |           FAIR |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |
 -------   |           POOR |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |
   65%     |      VERY POOR |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |
           | EXTREMELY POOR |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |
           |----------------|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
           |  PROPAGATION   |Sun|Mon|Tue|Wed|Thu|Fri|Sat|Sun|Mon|Tue|
           |    QUALITY     |     Given in 8-Hour UT Intervals      |
            --------------------------------------------------------
 
NOTES:
       High latitudes >= 55       degree's north latitude
     Middle latitudes >= 40 < 55  degree's north latitude
        Low latitudes  < 40       degree's north latitude
 
 
 
POTENTIAL VHF DX PROPAGATION PREDICTIONS (17 FEBRUARY - 26 FEBRUARY)
   INCLUDES SID AND AURORAL BACKSCATTER ENHANCEMENT PREDICTIONS
 
                   HIGH LATITUDES
 __________________________________________________      ___________________
|  SIGNAL  | Given in 8 hour local time intervals  |    |  SID ENHANCEMENT  |
| QUALITY  |Sun|Mon|Tue|Wed|Thu|Fri|Sat|Sun|Mon|Tue|    |S|M|T|W|T|F|S|S|M|T|
|__________|___|___|___|___|___|___|___|___|___|___|    |-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|
| VERY GOOD|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |  0%|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|
|ABOVE NORM|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   | 20%|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|
|    NORMAL|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***| 40%| | |*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|
|BELOW NORM|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   | 60%| | | | | | | | | | |
| VERY POOR|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   | 80%| | | | | | | | | | |
|  BLACKOUT|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |100%| | | | | | | | | | |
|==========|===|===|===|===|===|===|===|===|===|===|    |-------------------|
|     100% |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |100%| | | | | | | | | | |
|      80% |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   | 80%| | | | | | | | | | |
|      60% |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   | 60%| | | | | | | | | | |
|      40% |   |   | * | * | * | * | * | * | * | * | 40%| | | | | | | | | | |
|      20% | * | * | * |** |** |** |** |** |** |** | 20%| | | | | |*|*|*|*|*|
|       0% |***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|  0%|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|
|----------+---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|    |-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|
|CHANCE OF |Sun|Mon|Tue|Wed|Thu|Fri|Sat|Sun|Mon|Tue|    |S|M|T|W|T|F|S|S|M|T|
|  VHF DX  | Given in 8 hour local time intervals  |    |AURORAL BACKSCATTER|
|__________|_______________________________________|    |___________________|
 
 
                  MIDDLE LATITUDES
 __________________________________________________      ___________________
|  SIGNAL  | Given in 8 hour local time intervals  |    |  SID ENHANCEMENT  |
| QUALITY  |Sun|Mon|Tue|Wed|Thu|Fri|Sat|Sun|Mon|Tue|    |S|M|T|W|T|F|S|S|M|T|
|__________|___|___|___|___|___|___|___|___|___|___|    |-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|
| VERY GOOD|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |  0%|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|
|ABOVE NORM|   |   |   | * | * | * | * | * | * | * | 20%|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|
|    NORMAL|***|***|***|* *|* *|* *|* *|* *|* *|* *| 40%| | |*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|
|BELOW NORM|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   | 60%| | | | | |*|*|*|*|*|
| VERY POOR|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   | 80%| | | | | | | | | | |
|  BLACKOUT|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |100%| | | | | | | | | | |
|==========|===|===|===|===|===|===|===|===|===|===|    |-------------------|
|     100% |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |100%| | | | | | | | | | |
|      80% |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   | 80%| | | | | | | | | | |
|      60% |   |   |   |   | * | * | * | * | * | * | 60%| | | | | | | | | | |
|      40% |   |   | * | * | * | * | * | * | * | * | 40%| | | | | | | | | | |
|      20% | * | * | **| **|***|***|***|***|***|***| 20%| | | | | |*|*|*|*|*|
|       0% |***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|  0%|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|
|----------+---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|    |-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|
|CHANCE OF |Sun|Mon|Tue|Wed|Thu|Fri|Sat|Sun|Mon|Tue|    |S|M|T|W|T|F|S|S|M|T|
|  VHF DX  | Given in 8 hour local time intervals  |    |AURORAL BACKSCATTER|
|__________|_______________________________________|    |___________________|
 
                    LOW LATITUDES
 __________________________________________________      ___________________
|  SIGNAL  | Given in 8 hour local time intervals  |    |  SID ENHANCEMENT  |
| QUALITY  |Sun|Mon|Tue|Wed|Thu|Fri|Sat|Sun|Mon|Tue|    |S|M|T|W|T|F|S|S|M|T|
|__________|___|___|___|___|___|___|___|___|___|___|    |-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|
| VERY GOOD|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |  0%|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|
|ABOVE NORM|   |   |   | * | * | * | * | * | * | * | 20%|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|
|    NORMAL|***|***|***|* *|* *|* *|* *|* *|* *|* *| 40%| |*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|
|BELOW NORM|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   | 60%| | | | | |*|*|*|*|*|
| VERY POOR|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   | 80%| | | | | | | | | | |
|  BLACKOUT|   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |100%| | | | | | | | | | |
|==========|===|===|===|===|===|===|===|===|===|===|    |-------------------|
|     100% |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |100%| | | | | | | | | | |
|      80% |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   | 80%| | | | | | | | | | |
|      60% |   |   |   | * | * | * | * | * | * | * | 60%| | | | | | | | | | |
|      40% |   | * | * | * | * | * | * | * | * | * | 40%| | | | | | | | | | |
|      20% | * | * | **| **| **| **| **| **| **| **| 20%| | | | | | | | | | |
|       0% |***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|  0%|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|
|----------+---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|    |-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|
|CHANCE OF |Sun|Mon|Tue|Wed|Thu|Fri|Sat|Sun|Mon|Tue|    |S|M|T|W|T|F|S|S|M|T|
|  VHF DX  | Given in 8 hour local time intervals  |    |AURORAL BACKSCATTER|
|__________|_______________________________________|    |___________________|
 
NOTES:
      These VHF DX prediction charts are defined for the 50 MHz to 150 MHz
bands.  They are based primarily on phenomena which can affect VHF DX
propagation globally.  They should be used only as a guide to potential
DX conditions on VHF bands.  Latitudinal boundaries are the same as those for
the HF predictions charts.  For more information, request the document
"Understanding Solar Terrestrial Reports" from: "std_oler@hg.uleth.ca".
 
 
AURORAL ACTIVITY PREDICTIONS (17 FEBRUARY - 26 FEBRUARY)
 
                            High Latitude Locations
            ________________________________________________________
           | EXTREMELY HIGH |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |
CONFIDENCE |      VERY HIGH |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |
  LEVEL    |           HIGH |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |
 -------   |       MODERATE |   |   |   |   | * |***|***| * |   |   |
   70%     |            LOW | * | * | * |***|***|***|***|***|***|***|
           |    NOT VISIBLE |***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|
           |----------------|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
           |    AURORAL     |Sun|Mon|Tue|Wed|Thu|Fri|Sat|Sun|Mon|Tue|
           |   INTENSITY    |  Eve.Twilight/Midnight/Morn.Twilight  |
            --------------------------------------------------------
 
                          Middle Latitude Locations
            ________________________________________________________
           | EXTREMELY HIGH |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |
CONFIDENCE |      VERY HIGH |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |
  LEVEL    |           HIGH |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |
 -------   |       MODERATE |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |
   65%     |            LOW |   |   |   |   | * |***|***| * |   |   |
           |    NOT VISIBLE |***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|
           |----------------|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
           |    AURORAL     |Sun|Mon|Tue|Wed|Thu|Fri|Sat|Sun|Mon|Tue|
           |   INTENSITY    |  Eve.Twilight/Midnight/Morn.Twilight  |
            --------------------------------------------------------
 
                             Low Latitude Locations
            ________________________________________________________
           | EXTREMELY HIGH |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |
CONFIDENCE |      VERY HIGH |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |
  LEVEL    |           HIGH |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |
 -------   |       MODERATE |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |
   80%     |            LOW |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |   |
           |    NOT VISIBLE |***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|
           |----------------|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
           |    AURORAL     |Sun|Mon|Tue|Wed|Thu|Fri|Sat|Sun|Mon|Tue|
           |   INTENSITY    |  Eve.Twilight/Midnight/Morn.Twilight  |
            --------------------------------------------------------
 
NOTE:
     For more information regarding these charts, send a request for the
document, "Understanding Solar Terrestrial Reports" to: std_oler@hg.uleth.ca.
 
 
**  End of Report  **
