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From: oler@HG.ULeth.CA
To: haminfo@lut.fi
Subject: POTENTIAL MAJOR FLARE WARNING UPDATE - 22 FEBRUARY
Date: Fri, 22 Feb 91 01:24:59 MST

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                  POTENTIAL MAJOR FLARE WARNING UPDATE
 
                          Warning Cancellation
                    Comments Requested (please read)
 
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                           February 22, 1991
 
 
WARNING CANCELLATION:
 
     The potential major flare warning has been cancelled for the present
time.  It could be reinstated if activity intensifies.
 
     The potential for major flaring has dropped to the point where major
flaring is not longer expected at the present time.  The regions which were
capable (and still may be capable) of producing major flares have been
unproductive lately.  The potential for major flaring could easily
materialize in a relatively short period of time, but things now appear to
have stabilized beyond the point where major flaring is strongly possible.
Minor M-class flaring capable of producing minor SID's/SWF's are still
expected to occur.
 
     The regions most capable of spawning flares are Regions 6504 (S16W03),
6508 (S13E38), 6497 (S12W36) and 6509 (S21E31).  Region 6509 is the largest
region on the disk at the present time, encompassing 3,960 million square
kilometers and 38 spots configured in an EKI optical group.  The magnetic
field in this region is high, but the gradients are low.  Shear does not
appear to be a factor either, hence major flaring is unlikely from this
region despite it's ominous appearance.
 
     It appears that Region 6497 may be forming a magnetic delta
configuration.  If a stronger delta configuration materializes, minor
M-class flaring could begin from this region shortly.  However, the
delta configuration (if it has indeed materialized) might only be temporary.
 
     Surging has been noticed recently on the east limb near where old
Region 6471 should be.  This region may have experienced significant decay
on the far side of the sun (it became a fairly frequent major flare producer
as it departed around the west limb several weeks ago).
 
     The solar flux reached 302 today (21 February) and is expected to
continue climbing.  Current predictions estimate the 10.7 cm radio solar
flux to reach 320 by 24 February.  The sunspot number for 21 February
is 325.  Unless some major new developments occur, the sunspot number is
not expected to reach 400 as was previously thought possible.  The
background x-ray flux is steady near a class C2 x-ray level.
 
     A coronal hole could begin enhancing geomagnetic activity over the
next 48 hours.  However, the hole has diminished in size recently and is
not expected to produce anything more significant than unsettled conditions
with possible isolated periods of active conditions (particularly over the
higher latitudes).
 
     Auroral activity could likewise become enhanced somewhat within the
next 48 hours.  No significant activity is expected.  Moderate activity
could become visible over many high latitude regions.  However, the activity
is expected to remain confined to the high latitudes.
 
     HF propagation conditions are above normal at the present time.  Above
normal propagation conditions are expected to continue throughout the next
week.  MUF's could range from 40 to 55 MHz (dependent on location and time).
Openings on 6 meters are very possible (if not likely) during the strong
daylight hours over many regions.  Reports of 6 meter DX contacts would
be appreciated.  Send any reports to "oler@hg.uleth.ca".  Signals should
remain strong and stable, except perhaps during local sunrise hours.
 
     VHF propagation conditions are normal to above normal.  As was
mentioned above, lower frequency 6 meter openings are possible.
 
 
COMMENTS REQUESTED - PLEASE READ AND RESPOND
 
     Some structural changes in operation have been made recently with
regards to Solar Terrestrial information distribution.  Things have shifted
from what originally was a temporary examination of the feasibility of
distributing solar terrestrial information to a more permanent facility for
providing these services.
 
     We have some vigorous and impressive new plans for providing public
and research quality information and interpretation tools for users of the
reports.  The enhancements could significantly benefit users requiring
radio propagation information (ie. ionospherically-related), solar activity
information (whether it is sunspot, flare, coronal, proton, electron, or
magnetically related, or whether it has to do with potential terrestrial
impacts of one sort or another), and/or geophysical information (such as
geomagnetic activity, auroral activity, magnetically induced currents,
or other geophysical anomalies).
 
     However, before these plans can be initiated, we require comments from
as many users of the information as possible in order to aid in securing
funding for these initiatives.
 
     We are therefore requesting all individuals and organizations who find
the solar terrestrial information useful and/or beneficial to send comments
regarding the usefulness of the information posted over the nets.  We would
also appreciate comments from those who are aiding in redistributing the
information to other sources.  Comments regarding the extent of
distribution, positive feedback received from distribution, etc would all
be appreciated.  Descriptions of the worth of these services are also
encouraged.
 
     We are hoping the response to this request will be sufficient to be
a convincing tool in our attempts to secure the funding necessary to enhance
and expand our operations this summer.
 
     Please send all comments to: "oler@hg.uleth.ca"   Thanks very much.
 
 
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